With the constant stream of data about COVID-19, it can be hard to make sense of all the numbers. We look at the base rate fallacy, and how some people are making this mistake when assessing risk.

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. This article is more than ...

Recently I've been deep-diving into a model of brain, mind, and behavior—active inference and the free energy principle—developed by a leading neuroscientist and computational psychiatrist Karl ...

Economics professors typically cover the “economic way of thinking” in the first chapter of a principles of economics course. After covering 8-10 of the most important guideposts and principles of ...

What happens when an entrepreneur realizes their project isn't delivering? It can create a crossroad between perseverance and prudence—the point where passion meets pragmatism. The resulting decision ...

Narrative fallacy is a term introduced by Nassim Taleb [1]. It refers to our difficulty looking at a sequence of facts without connecting them in some way, either to each other or to something else we ...

The curiosity explorers at Vsauce2 investigate the prosecutor's fallacy and how flawed mathematical reasoning has led to the ...

Dividends give equity investors a less risky way to make money. Dividends received from a stock don't count toward the gains or losses that were made by buying that stock. When bond yields rise, ...

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed climate change is a fallacy, criticizing California's environmental ...

Quote of the day, from economist Milton Friedman: “Most economic fallacies derive from the tendency to assume that there is a fixed pie, that one party can gain only at the expense of another.” In ...